Khao Aur Khilao budget by Arindam Chaudhuri
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Building castles in the air
Why do poll predictions go so awry? B.S. Chandrasekhar, an audience research expert – a man who tracks attitudinal behaviour of voters - attempts to unravel the statistical puzzle in an interview to TSI: “Most psephologists believe that the margin of standard error in a sample size of 10,000 is around 0.5 percent. Some of them consider a margin of 0.15 as standard error in a sample size of 1 lakh. A difference on the vote share of two percent could result in difference of 12 seats in the Lok Sabha. That margin of standard error gets to be larger in bigger states like UP and Bihar.”
Analysts say that data collected by agencies is of poor quality and their reach in geographically diverse states, suspect.
For the 2004 poll prediction disaster, for instance, NDTV-AC Neilson claimed it had taken a sample size of 1, 22,000. A large size, no doubt, but was it large enough? Samples had been collected from 213 constituencies out of 543, which on face value looks good, but when pitched against the sheer diversity and staggering numbers that come into play on India’s electoral calculus, it is probably no more than a small blip.
Most analysts agree poll prediction is a risky job, but say dangers are magnified when psephologists take their job casually. Countless times predictions are made on the basis of half-baked samples. Exit-poll forecasts are released even before the last vote has been cast.
During the 2004 Lok Sabha in Uttar Pradesh, the election process was to conclude in three phases, but the complete forecast was laid out after Phase 1 and 2, according to which the BJP was slated to get 30 (Aaj Tak), 28 (NDTV), 36 (Star News), but actually slumped to a paltry 11 because the concluding rounds had not been taken into their consideration. “They know its wrong, but they still do it,’’ believes B S Chandrasekhar. You could put it down to compulsions of the marketplace
Crystal ball gazing in Uttar Pradesh is tricky anyway. During the 2007 assembly election, no pundit was quite able to read the UP electorate and their resolve to put Mayawati in front. The CNN-IBN-CSDS predicted a neck-to-neck fight between BSP and SP and gave BSP only 140-150 seats, which in the final analysis, turned out to be 50-60 seats shorter.
Do pollsters confuse between opinion and exit polls? ``Channels starts beaming exit poll outcomes from 5 p.m. on the basis of voting till 2 p.m. But there is no revision of the forecast when voting is complete. The voting pattern in the afternoon is not taken into account, which is a major flaw, because in the afternoon, it tends to be heavier. Secondly, exit poll locations are not representative and far flung areas remain inaccessible,’’ says Prabhkar, head of media lab at the Centre for Media Studies (CMS).
In addition, pollsters have failed to understand the psychology of voters. There is no tested methodology to ascertain the margin of error in replies from respondents. Statistician and psephologist Rajeev Laxman Karnandikar, reacting to TSI’s question on varying poll predictions by TV channels and other agencies, clarifies: “There samples are different and so the methodologies of prediction.” Not surprisingly, so are the declared results.
For more articles, Click on IIPM Article.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
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Building castles in the air
Why do poll predictions go so awry? B.S. Chandrasekhar, an audience research expert – a man who tracks attitudinal behaviour of voters - attempts to unravel the statistical puzzle in an interview to TSI: “Most psephologists believe that the margin of standard error in a sample size of 10,000 is around 0.5 percent. Some of them consider a margin of 0.15 as standard error in a sample size of 1 lakh. A difference on the vote share of two percent could result in difference of 12 seats in the Lok Sabha. That margin of standard error gets to be larger in bigger states like UP and Bihar.”Analysts say that data collected by agencies is of poor quality and their reach in geographically diverse states, suspect.
For the 2004 poll prediction disaster, for instance, NDTV-AC Neilson claimed it had taken a sample size of 1, 22,000. A large size, no doubt, but was it large enough? Samples had been collected from 213 constituencies out of 543, which on face value looks good, but when pitched against the sheer diversity and staggering numbers that come into play on India’s electoral calculus, it is probably no more than a small blip.
Most analysts agree poll prediction is a risky job, but say dangers are magnified when psephologists take their job casually. Countless times predictions are made on the basis of half-baked samples. Exit-poll forecasts are released even before the last vote has been cast.
During the 2004 Lok Sabha in Uttar Pradesh, the election process was to conclude in three phases, but the complete forecast was laid out after Phase 1 and 2, according to which the BJP was slated to get 30 (Aaj Tak), 28 (NDTV), 36 (Star News), but actually slumped to a paltry 11 because the concluding rounds had not been taken into their consideration. “They know its wrong, but they still do it,’’ believes B S Chandrasekhar. You could put it down to compulsions of the marketplace
Crystal ball gazing in Uttar Pradesh is tricky anyway. During the 2007 assembly election, no pundit was quite able to read the UP electorate and their resolve to put Mayawati in front. The CNN-IBN-CSDS predicted a neck-to-neck fight between BSP and SP and gave BSP only 140-150 seats, which in the final analysis, turned out to be 50-60 seats shorter.
Do pollsters confuse between opinion and exit polls? ``Channels starts beaming exit poll outcomes from 5 p.m. on the basis of voting till 2 p.m. But there is no revision of the forecast when voting is complete. The voting pattern in the afternoon is not taken into account, which is a major flaw, because in the afternoon, it tends to be heavier. Secondly, exit poll locations are not representative and far flung areas remain inaccessible,’’ says Prabhkar, head of media lab at the Centre for Media Studies (CMS).
In addition, pollsters have failed to understand the psychology of voters. There is no tested methodology to ascertain the margin of error in replies from respondents. Statistician and psephologist Rajeev Laxman Karnandikar, reacting to TSI’s question on varying poll predictions by TV channels and other agencies, clarifies: “There samples are different and so the methodologies of prediction.” Not surprisingly, so are the declared results.
For more articles, Click on IIPM Article.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
IIPM 4Ps Quiz- Shahrukh Khan Video
IIPM - Most Innovative B-School
IIPM Best B-school
IIPM
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IIPM 4ps Quiz
IIPM: History, and Founder Director Dr. M.K. Chaudhuri
IIPM New Delhi, The Indian Institute of Planning and Management, India
IIPM Placements New Delhi, India
IIPM New Delhi India
IIPM MBA Institute India
IIPM - International
Business and Economy - India's Most Influential Business and ...
Rankings IIPM, The Indian Institute of Planning and Management India
Management Certification, IIPM India
(IIPM) Management Education Institute India
Moneycontrol >> News >> Press- News >> IIPM ranked No1 B-School in ...
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The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
Deccan Herald - IIPM ranked as top B-School in India
India eNews - IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
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