Thursday, March 12, 2009

Boom or bust is none of their business...

IIPM Ranked No. 1 B-School In Global Exposre - Zee...

It is surprising that the government is being held responsible foAdd Imager economic ills today

One of the most remarkable features of the India of this decade is the manner in which its economy has insulated itself from its politics. World over, analysts have been admiring the neat compartmentalization between the economy and the politics of India. The last time political decision making caused a downturn in the growth story was when the unfortunate nuclear tests were carried out as India flexed its muscles at the world. That was when we saw slowdown in growth, a decline in investments and a downslide in industrial confidence. But since then, no political event has affected growth, not even the shameful incidents in Gujarat. Nor the surprising election results that saw a shining government fall and get replaced by an unlikely and tumultuous coalition that saw the left parties supporting a reformist government. In fact, in the last four years, India has averaged a growth rate of 9%, something we have only seen China do in modern times, where the political and the economic agenda are the same.

There is faint suspicion that this year seems to have reversed the trend. Ironically, the same people who argued that politics and economics in India are divorced, have started blaming the government for the economic situation. High inflation, oil prices, the rise and fall of the rupee and the trade deficit. In a market economy that is growing at a fast pace, it is axiomatic that there will be some inflation. Inflation at 11.5% is undoubtedly high and does affect the poor, but is not surprising and cannot be blamed on the government of the day. There are global food shortages, market imperfections and domestic seasonal fluctuations that do cause food prices to go up. But these cannot be tackled with hikes in interest rates, which is the only significant option a government has today when pressurized to act. Imports don’t help when world prices are high, banning exports amounts to penalizing the farmer just when he is looking forward to some gains from high prices. On petrol and diesel again, what role does a domestic government have when crude prices keep going upwards? Subsidies can be given but beyond a point will come back to haunt everyone through high taxes and deficits.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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