Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Citi Corp is surviving purely because of cash infusions by sovereign wealth funds.

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The same ‘Masters of Universe’ who used to hector about the perils of over-regulation are now running to Uncle Sam with begging bowls in their hands, screaming to be saved.

Three of the ‘Big Five’ of Wall Street – Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers have disappeared. Citi Corp is surviving purely because of cash infusions by sovereign wealth funds. The two largest home mortgage institutions of the United States, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were rescued from bankruptcy and ruin because the government has effectively taken them over, just as it has effectively taken over about 80% of AIG. Even the $30 billion takeover of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan has been bankrolled by Uncle Sam. The same ‘Masters of Universe’ who used to hector about the perils of over-regulation are now running to Uncle Sam with begging bowls in their hands, screaming to be saved. AIG was lucky; Lehman Brothers was not because the US Treasury department refused to help the once envied and feared poster boy of Wall Street. Each time a bank or an institution fails, optimistic analysts hope that the worst is over. Says Amir Ullah Khan, Director, India Development Foundation, “This is a correction that US markets are witnessing after about 20 years… the crisis is a temporary phenomenon seen in US, not the rest of the world”. But the rest of the world is getting the jitters, without doubt. Stock markets across Asia and Europe have been tumbling like nine pins. And who knows where the bottom lies. Here is what the former Chief Economist of IMF, Kenneth Rogoff has to say, “The financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps… We’re not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we’re going to see a whopper, we’re going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks.” About one month ago, Rogoff, who is now at the Harvard University, had predicted that a large US bank will fail. In fact, celebrated wealth creators like George Soros and irreverent market analysts like Marc Faber have been screaming from rooftops for years and years that the American financial system was an incredible bubble that had to bust. Way back in 2005, this is what Marc Faber had to say about the markets in the US, “It is not only AIG that has been weak recently. Fannie Mae, sub-prime lenders, and banks including Citicorp have also broken down-certainly not a positive indicator for the entire stock market… In fact, we would use any strength in financials including mortgage, credit card & sub-prime lenders and providers of financial guarantee products and banks as a selling or shorting opportunity” Not many paid any heed to the prescient words of the ‘maverick’ Marc at that time. Now the chickens have come home to roost.


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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and
Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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